Uttar Pradesh: Prestige at Stake of Parties in By-Polls - By Anupam Srivastava

 

Uttar Pradesh: Prestige at Stake of Parties in By-Polls - By Anupam Srivastava 

In Uttar Pradesh, nine legislators have won Lok Sabha seats, and the membership of one MLA is likely to be canceled. Consequently, 8 assembly seats will see by-elections in the coming days, posing a significant test for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Lok Sabha Election Results and Assembly By-elections:

The Lok Sabha election results have revealed the true extent of BJP's hold over the electorate. Despite its ambitious "Mission-80" slogan, the BJP secured only 33 seats. Together with its allies, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managed to win 36 seats, while the opposition alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress won 43 seats. Additionally, Chandrashekhar of the Azad Samaj Party triumphed in the Nagina Lok Sabha seat.

Several legislators from both BJP and SP contested the Lok Sabha elections, and with nine of them becoming MPs, the stage is set for assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh. All nine new MPs have vacated their assembly seats. Furthermore, the Sisamau assembly seat in Kanpur will also be vacant, as its SP MLA Irfan Solanki has been sentenced to seven years in prison for arson. Therefore, by-elections will be held for 10 assembly seats, challenging the BJP's influence.

Key Contests in Assembly By-elections:

1. Milkipur Assembly Seat:

   An aggressive contest is expected in Milkipur, Ayodhya, which BJP aims to capture from SP. Former BJP MLA Baba Gorakhnath, Ramu Priyadarshi, Neeraj Kanaujia, Kashiram Rawat, Radheshyam Tyagi, Chandrabhanu Paswan, Laxmi Rawat, and Bablu Pasi are among the contenders. SP's potential candidate is Ajit Prasad, son of Awadhesh Prasad.

2. Karhal Assembly Seat:

   After Akhilesh Yadav's resignation, the Karhal seat holds strategic importance for SP. Akhilesh's nephew Tej Pratap Yadav might contest from here. It remains to be seen who BJP will field in this crucial seat. In the 2022 assembly elections, Agra MP S. P. Singh Baghel contested against Akhilesh Yadav in Karhal.

3. Katehari Assembly Seat:

   SP MLA Lalji Verma vacated this seat after winning the Ambedkar Nagar Lok Sabha seat. His wife Shobhavati Verma is a prominent candidate. The BJP's NDA ally Nishad Party is eyeing this seat, as its candidate Awadhesh Kumar narrowly lost to Verma in 2022.

4. Kundarki Assembly Seat:

   SP MLA Zia-ur-Rahman, now an MP from Sambhal, vacated this seat. It is significant for the BJP.

5. Khair Assembly Seat:

   BJP MLA and state Revenue Minister Anup Pradhan Valmiki won the Hathras (Reserved) Lok Sabha seat.

6. Phulpur and Ghaziabad Assembly Seats:

   BJP MLAs Praveen Patel and Atul Garg won the Phulpur and Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seats, respectively.

7. Mirpur Assembly Seat:

   RLD MLA Chandan Chauhan won the Bijnor Lok Sabha seat. With RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary joining the central cabinet, ensuring victory here will be crucial for the party, whether the candidate is from RLD or BJP.

Opposition Strategy:

In the by-elections, the SP and Congress alliance is preparing to give a tough fight. They performed exceptionally well in the Lok Sabha elections and aim to replicate their success in the assembly by-elections. Congress has shown interest in fielding candidates on some of these seats.

Political analyst and Head of the Department of Political Science at Lucknow University, Professor Manuka Khanna, stated, “The way Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav have won the trust of the public with a positive message, both leaders will aim to maintain this momentum in the assembly by-elections. SP and Congress will strive to win as many seats as possible to prove that their strong performance in the Lok Sabha elections was no fluke.”

If an alliance is formed for the assembly by-elections, Khair, Ghaziabad, and Majhwan assembly seats might go to Congress.

Manuka Khanna added, “The upcoming assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh are crucial not only for the BJP but also for the SP and Congress. This election presents an opportunity for all political parties that did not perform well in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP will have to work hard to maintain its hold, while SP and Congress will try to capitalize on this opportunity. Hence, the politics of Uttar Pradesh will once again witness enthusiasm and competition, potentially leading to new developments in the state's political landscape.”

Internal Conflict Between BJP Leaders Sanjeev Balyan and Sangeet Som Affects Party in Western Uttar Pradesh -Anupam Srivastava

 

By Anupam Srivastava 

In Western Uttar Pradesh, the escalating conflict between BJP stalwarts Sanjeev Balyan and Sangeet Som has become a significant issue for the party. This internal strife surfaced prominently during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, impacting the BJP’s performance in the region.j

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had initiated the BJP’s election campaign in Western UP from the Meerut Lok Sabha seat on March 31, considering it a lucky constituency for the party. Modi had launched campaigns from Meerut in both the 2014 and 2019 elections, leading to strong performances by the BJP in the state.

Modi's choice to start the 2024 campaign from Meerut was aimed at consolidating Jat votes, a critical demographic in Western UP. The event, held at the Central Potato Research Institute in Modipuram, highlighted the new alliance between the BJP and Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Sanjeev Balyan, the BJP candidate from the neighboring Muzaffarnagar constituency, was present, relying heavily on Jat voter consolidation.

However, since the 2022 assembly elections, tensions had been brewing between Balyan and former BJP MLA from Sardhana, Sangeet Som. Som's supporters accused Balyan of sabotaging his assembly election campaign, which led to a rift. The conflict intensified as Balyan's convoy was attacked just two days before Modi's rally, with Balyan’s supporters blaming Som for the incident.

The internal discord was well known to the BJP's top leadership. Following Modi's rally in Meerut, a meeting was held in a Swiss cottage behind the stage, involving Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, state BJP President Bhupendra Chaudhary, Balyan, and Som. Despite the half-hour discussion, no resolution was reached, and the animosity persisted throughout the election period.

Post-elections, Balyan faced a significant defeat in Muzaffarnagar, losing to Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Harendra Singh Malik by 24,672 votes. Malik had campaigned vigorously against Balyan, highlighting his shortcomings in various villages. Additionally, the Jat and Muslim voters' consolidation in favor of SP contributed to Balyan's defeat.

Balyan did not take his defeat lightly, alleging internal sabotage by BJP members. He specifically pointed fingers at Som, accusing him of aiding the SP. Balyan publicly called for an investigation into these allegations and criticized the party leadership for allowing 'traitors' to hold high positions within the BJP.

In response, Som held a press conference defending his role and performance in the Sardhana constituency, where the BJP performed well. He urged Balyan to introspect and accused him of corruption, further deepening the divide.

The feud between Balyan and Som, both prominent figures since the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, significantly undermined the BJP’s discipline and electoral prospects in Western UP. Analysts note that the BJP’s internal conflict, coupled with voter dissatisfaction over candidate selection, particularly among the Thakur community, played a crucial role in the party’s poor showing. Despite efforts by Yogi Adityanath to mediate, the rift remained unresolved.

As a result, the BJP managed to win only 13 out of 26 seats in Western UP, a sharp decline from the 18 seats it had secured in 2019. This internal strife within the BJP has raised concerns about the party's ability to manage its factionalism and maintain electoral dominance in the region.

The BJP has now initiated an internal review process to understand the reasons behind its disappointing performance. State BJP President Bhupendra Chaudhary has formed a committee to investigate the significant loss of seats and identify the factors contributing to the party’s electoral setbacks. The party aims to address these issues and rebuild its strength in the region ahead of future elections.

Why Faizabad was lost Despite Ram Temple –by Anupam Srivastava

Why Faizabad was lost Despite Ram Temple –by Anupam Srivastava 

Despite coming up of Ram Temple Bharatiya Janata Party Candidate Lallu Singh  lost the seat of Ayodhya to Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Awadhesh Prasad by a margin of 54,567 votes.  

It was a matter of  BJP losing it rather than Samajwadi party winning it. Lallu Singhs statement about Changing the constitution , brought him limelight but ensured that he lost the support of Dalits who are emotionally wedded to the constitution because it is written by none other than their icon Baba Saheb Bhimrao Ambedkar.  

Lallu Singh's controversial remarks about changing the Indian Constitution were so  damaging that they alienated a substantial segment of Dalit voters who hold the Constitution in high regard, especially since it was drafted by Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, a revered figure amongst the Dalits. This statement resulted in loss of all seats for BJP in entire Faizabad division. 

The statements which are made without usinmg grey matter may jolt you with results like this.   

The victory of Samajwadi party is particularly significant given the fact that the temple's consecration did not translate into electoral success BJP. Residents of Ayodhya, demonstrated that despite delivering the promises if you are not polite then people are ready to discard you. Sandeep Singh a local businessman said , “ We have changed the man, who wanted to change the constitution. You can see arrogance will not be tolerated , the BJP never bothered to chek when officials of district administration were treating the common shopkeepers badly, when they  cited their economic hardships and displacement caused by the temple's construction. They could have been dealt politely and in a better way.” 

During the BJP regime the bureaucracy has gone berserk. Now people are in no mood to let it go. Now after taking 10 years of arrogance they have decided to punish the officials by displacing BJP with SP. Just remember people are in no mood to forgive corrupt and arrogant officials. 

Its  only the second time the SP has won the Faizabad seat, with the last win was in 1998 by Mitrasen Yadav.  

Another key factor in this victory was the strategic slogan "Na Mathura na Kashi, Abki Baar Awadhesh Pasi," which resonated deeply not only with the Dalit community in Faizabad but also got the support of other upper caste and Muslims. This move by Akhilesh Yadav was seen as a masterstroke, as it consolidated votes from Dalits, other backward classes, and the traditional Yadav-Muslim vote bank, ensuring Prasad's success. 

Additionally, anti-incumbency sentiment against Lallu Singh significantly influenced the election outcome. 

Many voters felt that Singh's work primarily benefited outsiders rather than the local population. His controversial statements about altering the Constitution further alienated voters. Dalit voter Ram Sumer remarked, "Singh's work benefited outsiders more than the local populace, and his controversial statements about changing the Constitution alienated many voters." 

This electoral setback may serves as a wake-up call for the BJP, highlighting the need for humility and sensitivity in governance. The officials must recognize that they are public servants, not benefactors, and must treat residents with respect and consideration. Singh's defeat not only disrupts the BJP's dominance in the region but also suggests a potential shift in the political dynamics of Ayodhya and Faizabad. 

This landmark win underscores the opposition's ability to mobilize diverse voter groups and demonstrates the significance of strategic candidate selection and community engagement in Indian electoral politics. It highlights the importance of maintaining a respectful and inclusive approach towards all sections of society, a lesson the BJP will need to heed as it navigates future electoral challenges. 

 

For political students  the Ayodhya election serves as a poignant reminder that even the most celebrated achievements can be rendered moot by a lack of sensitivity and respect for the electorate. The SP's victory is a testament to the power of strategic political maneuvering and the electorate's desire for leaders who genuinely understand and address their concerns. 

Besides proving that development alone can't guarantee success in elections, this result highlights the critical importance of choice of words and behavior when addressing gatherings. It demonstrates that arrogance and insensitive remarks can alienate voters, even in the face of significant achievements. Additionally, it underscores the necessity of controlling the bureaucracy and ensuring that officials treat the public with respect and empathy. Failure to do so can lead to significant electoral setbacks, as seen in the recent Ayodhya election, where Lallu Singh's missteps overshadowed the BJP's accomplishments and paved the way for the SP's victory.